Betting on the House

Caught the news the other day that 23 percent of homes bought last year were for investment, not to live in. Oh my...here we go. After a few years of incredibly strong appreciation rates, everyone figures that buying a home as an investment is a great move.

Not so fast.

Look, real estate is indeed a terrific investment, but only over the long-term and only if you really know what you are doing and can weather any temporary soft spots. But I know that a lot of people jumping into real estate as an investment are an accident waiting to happen. They are using interest-only loans and adjustables to get the mortgage cost down, on the theory they will flip the home in a few years at a fat profit. Well, there are plenty of smart housing experts warning that the next few years are going to be a "cool down" period for home prices in a lot of regions. That means anyone banking on 20 percent or 30 percent appreciation over the next few years  could be rudely surprised, and in a financial bind.

I am also already hearing from folks who bought property they intended to rent, but are now having trouble getting tenants, or tenants willing to pay enough to cover the mortgage. And they don't have the savings to cover their costs. People, if you ever intend to own real estate as an investment, my eight-month emergency fund rule is non-negotiable. You MUST have substantial savings in place so you can handle any short-term cash flow problems.

Comments

[Russ]

Just wondering if it's a bad idea to go through a moderate income program. NJ has one, but will my equity grow, is this worth it. Any tips would help, thanks.

[Greg]

Single File PMI:
I just saw Suze in Ann Arbor MI last night and was very impressed with her idea regarding Single File PMI as a way to lower mortgage costs for low down payment loans. Suze stated regular PMI on a low downpayment $100,000 loan was $45/ month or $540/year and not deductible. If I go to the Single File providers web site (MGIC) I get the impression they add .5% to the rate to get the Single File PMI, or $500/ year extra for the same $100,000 loan. Although the Single File is a bit less, and deductible, the fact that the mortgage rate is always .5% higher, for the life of the loan, makes me think you would be better off getting Traditional PMI, and cancelling it once you had 20% equity. What am I missing?

[Bonnie]

I just finished reading the book and realized we (my husband and I) broke one of the rules in the back. We basically financed 100% of our home. We know have a unsecured line of credit, a secured line of credit and our mortgage. The home equity line of credit has the highest interest rate. That is the one we took out to avoid paying PMI, but the interest rate is higher than the regular loan. We have great FICO scores (over 720) and no credit card debt. Should we refinance to get it all under one loan? We are paying our bills but not putting much away besides our 401k.

[Lisa]

I bought a condo three years ago and now I'm having to move because of a job promotion. I'm wondering if I have no credit card debt and a good FICO score, and a max yearly Roth contribution, is it reasonable for me to consider renting this condo and buying something else at my new location? It seems frightening for me to have two mortgages! However I also realize I may get a better return on this investment if I keep this condo for a few more years. Any thoughts?

[Whitney]

Suze,

I am a 26 year-old self-employed contractor, who has been renting an apartment for 2 yrs. Last year I paid off my car, and this year I paid off my credit card debt with a few thousand dollars left to spare which I put into a savings account. I know its time that I start getting financially ready to purchase a first home, but I am worried that I should also be putting money into retirement account like a Roth IRA and establishing an 8month emergency fund. I don't know if I will be able to swing doing all 3 at the same time unless I extend the time it will take me to get into a home from about 2 years to 4 years. Is there any way I can get into my own home sooner AND start a retirement Roth IRA & emergency fund? I know that as a self-employed person, a larger emergency fund in crucial.

Also how will being self-employed affect the mortage process and interest rates for me compared to a typical individual that is not self-employed? Will it be harder for me to be approved for the loan even if I have a high FICO score?

[Lily]

Hi Suze & all YF&Bers,

I am an attorney working in a large law firm, and make $179,000/year. You would think I'm financially set! But I've had to support my parents over the 3 years, and finally they will be getting back on their feet in a few months. Now, I am still in the process of saving for 8 months emergency fund (in money market account) and this year I started saving extra as well into a mutual fund account (through a financial advisor). But this is the thing: my company doesnt offer matching for 401k. You said to stop in that case, and get a ROTH IRA: Problem is, I don't qualify for that either because my income is too high. So where do I put my retirement money? Stay with the company? Should I first build up my emergency fund? Thanks,

[Debbie]

Hi, Suze (and everyone else).

I bought my condo in Los Angeles in 1997, and I put over 30% down. (I was really lucky that I graduated without student loans, due to very generous parents, so I was able to save, save, save.) With the prices of real estate in Los Angeles today, there is no way in heck that I could afford to buy my condo today - nor would I even consider paying its current market value. And my salary is more than twice what it was in 1997.

The market is out of control here, and with people doing all sorts of financial contortions to buy homes, I really think we are at the peak of the bubble - at least in Southern CA. I agree with Suze that we can expect to see real estate prices deflate by 20%-30%. I would not be buying into this market unless I was absolutely sure I could well afford not only the mortgage, property taxes, upkeep, association fees, etc., but also that I could afford to take any depreciation hits. It makes me sick to my stomach that a 1400 sq. ft. single-family home in West Los Angeles that's "nothing special" costs $1,000,000+. Let's just say that I would be re-visiting my "broke" years if I were to attempt to "trade up" in today's market.

[marlena]

I too am like Bonnie, I purchased my first home in 9/2004 with a 80/20 to avoid the PMI. The 80 is the regular home loan and the 20 is a HELOC. I saw Suze in Atlanta and read the book and thought,"I made a BIG mistake with getting the 80/20". I can pay the HELOC off after 1 year has passed without any penalty, so I am looking to do something after 9/24/2005, but I don't know what to do? Do I refinance the 20% into a regular home loan or what? Help!

[Tuan]

I don't agree with 20% drop overall; just in certain markets and with condos. Speculating with condos look crazy because it price/rent ratio is getting out of control. And if you can't find a renter, then you still have to pay the huge monthly association fees to pay for stuff like trash pickup, swimming pool, gym, etc. that's not being used.

[Tracey]

I'm 26 years old and almost ready to close on buying my first home. I'm just wanting to hear what thoughts are out there for getting a 5/1 ARM on an 80/20 loan. I'll be putting 10%, so really, my loan is for 80/10 on a 5/1 ARM. Oh, and I don't plan on staying in this house for more than 7 years. Am I getting the best loan OR am I making a BIG mistake? Please help! I'm very cautious with my money and want to ensure that I'm making the right investment with the right mortgage. ADVICE?

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[Tina]

The single file loan is the way to go! I considered using the 80/20 loan, but you need to look at the big picture. If you have a student loan, car loan, two mortgage loans(80/20) good luck trying to refinance. If you want an emergency loan, etc. Why would a lender loan you more money with several loans/debt? If you want to stay in the house longer, good luck paying down that balloon payment on a 80/20 loan when it is due. Congress may pass a bill limiting the tax deductions on two loans, why take that risk? The closing cost and paperwork are more because you are processing two loans. Just because you can eventually cancel your pmi, doesn't mean it's that easy. What % of people do you know that cancelled their pmi? Building equity doesn't always equate to cancelling pmi. It depends on how much you have payed off the loan and the small print your lender has in the paperwork you sign. Need I say more.

[confused]

Suzi,
I'm confused, some financial people say do interest only loans (primarily property flippers/investors) and others I've talked to say do the traditional 30 year loan. You are right in saying that Interest only loans are being pushed way too much to people who don't know what they're doing. If you get into an IO loan now a few years from now interest rates could be higher, but if you're only planning on living in a place (like condos) for 2-3 years and then move on then they make sense.
If you want to make equity off your primary residence then you need to an IO loan. Here's my reasoning. A guy like me who first doesn't make much can't afford a 30 year $200,000 home based on my net income. So if I want to do the 30 year traditional loan I have to go lower to like a $100,000 home. Which in most markets (major cities) is going to get you a condo (which don't appreciate as much as homes) or move you into a part of town that's too dangerous to live in and the resale value of the house just isn't there. No one wants to live in the slums by choice.
So that IO loan, which is a fixed interest for 5 or 7 years, looks pretty apeasing with a lower mortgage payment, and the ability to get a higher valued home. And thus have a better chance of resale value.
So I guess what I'm saying is I'm tired of hearing from the "experts" to either do or don't do one kind of loan or the other. It makes you look like you're hucking a financial product and getting paid on the back end to promote it. Each one has it's benefits and cons, which someone should take into account. Either way the bank or lender gets their money.

[patsy horne]

me and husband are buying a home we neeeeed helpppppppp on loan information

[Myrna Brewer-Flood]

Suzi,
My husband and I are in our early 60's. Due to a horrible business experience, we had to file bankruptcy 6.5 years ago. We have been able to work out of country (tx free) and have saved approximately $330,000. Should we consider buying a house again or renting at our age? We have no other retirement at all. If you suggest we should purchase a home -- what price range would you recommend?

Also...do you have suggestions where we might put our cash so it can grow more than setting in a savings account. Scared of losing again!

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